I believe it was the renowned economist, JK Galbraith, who said economic forecasting was invented to make astrology look respectable.

So, I do not propose to offer any firm predictions here or pretend to have any special knowledge about the housing and mortgage market. However, I am an Aries, so you will realise I do have most of the answers but am too competitive to share them.

As Managing Director of Metropolitan Home Ownership (MHO) I am responsible for a team that helps as many working households as possible get onto the affordable home ownership ladder, or into reasonably priced rented homes.

This has been a pretty tough challenge over the last 12 months but we are firmly on track to have provided homes to over 1500 households by the financial year end of 31 March 2010. The good news, too, is that we have managed to house more people more efficiently by improving the speed we sell and let homes.

However, the overall positive picture belies the fact that there have been some large differences in how markets have performed. Sales have been far better in London and the East regions of the country than the East Midlands, where market prices are still falling.

Indeed for now and next year, I think the usefulness of national or even regional averages as a guide to investment in many market places will decline. The successful appraisal of new ventures and the management of existing business will require good local indicators and knowledge.

Our teams are spending less time trying to make sense of traditionally valuable data in a very unstable world and spending more time sensing what is going on in very specific areas.

We are also spending more time getting out and about in local market places, meeting stakeholders, customers and prospective customers than we are analysing data and trends that seem far more relevant to a housing and mortgage market of a bygone age. This type of working is of the utmost importance now as we face a general and some local elections. Whatever the political outcome we should expect major changes to housing policy and public funding, driven by spending cuts and a need/desire for innovation.

In my view, 2010-11 offers the certainty of more uncertainty, but with it comes exciting opportunity.

Predictions

• Unemployment or the threat of it combined with rising living costs will prevent or discourage some customers from buying or moving.
• Access to mortgages for lower income households and those with small deposits will remain difficult.
• If the success of recent Government mortgage relief, mortgage rescue and new homes subsidy schemes is continued fewer distressed sales will come to market and this will keep prices stable.
• The ending of public funding for open market equity schemes in 2010-11 (customers buy a home on the open market), traditionally one of the lowest risk and most popular methods of housing we do, will reduce the number of households we help by about 60%.
• Demand for what we do at MHO is likely to continue to rise this year as more households cannot afford to buy or get a mortgage through traditional home buying routes and the supply of new homes remains weak.
• A new shared ownership lease, which we worked on with many partners including the National Housing Federation (NHF) and Council of Mortgage Lenders, should make affordable new build home ownership much more attractive to lenders and customers by substantially improving investment security and raising standards of customer and stakeholder care.
• A simplification of the products and brands we use will make what we do more understandable to new customers and partners, giving them the confidence to take part in greater numbers in the market place.
• A new model of public investment by the HCA will encourage more private investment.

Graeme Moran, Managing Director, Metropolitan Home Ownership